Earlier this week, the N.C. Department of Public Instruction published the final 2015-16 student counts for all district and charter schools. I used Average Daily Membership (ADM) data to determine which districts had the largest changes in enrollment over the last five school years.
As one would expect, Wake County and Charlotte-Mecklenburg had the largest numerical increases, adding 10,690 and 8,428 students, respectively. Cabarrus, Union, and Johnston counties rounded out the top five gainers. At the other end of the spectrum, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Buncombe, Nash-Rocky Mount, and Halifax lost the largest number of students.
Given variations in the size of districts in North Carolina, however, simple numerical changes can be misleading. Percentage change is a much more useful measure. Asheville City Schools had the largest percentage change in enrollment (+10.5 percent), followed by Mooresville Graded School District (+8.5 percent) and Pender County Schools (+8.0 percent). Cabarrus and Wake counties were not far behind.
The six districts with the largest decreases are located in the northeast region of the state. Halifax County Schools lost nearly one-quarter of their student enrollment over the last five school years. Northampton, Edgecombe, Bertie, Martin, and Weldon City Schools all had double-digit percentage decreases.
| District Number | District Name | 2015-16 Final ADM | 2011-12 Final ADM | ADM Difference | Percentage Change | Percentage Change Rank |
| 010 | Alamance-Burlington Schools | 22,600 | 22,141 | 459 | 2.1% | 29 |
| 020 | Alexander County Schools | 4,943 | 5,367 | (424) | -7.9% | 103 |
| 030 | Alleghany County Schools | 1,376 | 1,428 | (52) | -3.6% | 73 |
| 040 | Anson County Schools | 3,415 | 3,699 | (284) | -7.7% | 102 |
| 050 | Ashe County Schools | 3,066 | 3,103 | (37) | -1.2% | 49 |
| 060 | Avery County Schools | 2,064 | 2,125 | (61) | -2.9% | 69 |
| 070 | Beaufort County Schools | 6,836 | 6,847 | (11) | -0.2% | 38 |
| 080 | Bertie County Schools | 2,280 | 2,666 | (386) | -14.5% | 112 |
| 090 | Bladen County Schools | 4,630 | 5,046 | (416) | -8.2% | 104 |
| 100 | Brunswick County Schools | 12,369 | 12,026 | 343 | 2.9% | 22 |
| 110 | Buncombe County Schools | 24,305 | 25,260 | (955) | -3.8% | 77 |
| 111 | Asheville City Schools | 4,396 | 3,978 | 418 | 10.5% | 1 |
| 120 | Burke County Schools | 12,360 | 12,907 | (547) | -4.2% | 81 |
| 130 | Cabarrus County Schools | 31,260 | 29,023 | 2,237 | 7.7% | 4 |
| 132 | Kannapolis City Schools | 5,310 | 5,136 | 174 | 3.4% | 18 |
| 140 | Caldwell County Schools | 11,964 | 12,333 | (369) | -3.0% | 70 |
| 150 | Camden County Schools | 1,800 | 1,891 | (91) | -4.8% | 86 |
| 160 | Carteret County Public Schools | 8,246 | 8,336 | (90) | -1.1% | 46 |
| 170 | Caswell County Schools | 2,689 | 2,824 | (135) | -4.8% | 85 |
| 180 | Catawba County Schools | 16,333 | 17,001 | (668) | -3.9% | 78 |
| 181 | Hickory City Schools | 4,258 | 4,337 | (79) | -1.8% | 55 |
| 182 | Newton Conover City Schools | 3,088 | 2,912 | 176 | 6.0% | 9 |
| 190 | Chatham County Schools | 8,436 | 7,938 | 498 | 6.3% | 7 |
| 200 | Cherokee County Schools | 3,329 | 3,335 | (6) | -0.2% | 39 |
| 210 | Edenton-Chowan Schools | 2,049 | 2,250 | (201) | -8.9% | 106 |
| 220 | Clay County Schools | 1,302 | 1,325 | (23) | -1.7% | 52 |
| 230 | Cleveland County Schools | 14,906 | 15,481 | (575) | -3.7% | 75 |
| 240 | Columbus County Schools | 5,883 | 6,333 | (450) | -7.1% | 100 |
| 241 | Whiteville City Schools | 2,223 | 2,249 | (26) | -1.2% | 48 |
| 250 | Craven County Schools | 14,004 | 14,743 | (739) | -5.0% | 88 |
| 260 | Cumberland County Schools | 49,918 | 51,077 | (1,159) | -2.3% | 62 |
| 270 | Currituck County Schools | 3,966 | 3,873 | 93 | 2.4% | 26 |
| 280 | Dare County Schools | 4,944 | 4,829 | 115 | 2.4% | 27 |
| 290 | Davidson County Schools | 19,166 | 19,967 | (801) | -4.0% | 80 |
| 291 | Lexington City Schools | 3,008 | 3,009 | (1) | 0.0% | 36 |
| 292 | Thomasville City Schools | 2,375 | 2,417 | (42) | -1.7% | 5 |
| 300 | Davie County Schools | 6,265 | 6,423 | (158) | -2.5% | 64 |
| 310 | Duplin County Schools | 9,690 | 9,158 | 532 | 5.8% | 12 |
| 320 | Durham Public Schools | 33,144 | 32,332 | 812 | 2.5% | 24 |
| 330 | Edgecombe County Public Schools | 5,953 | 6,982 | (1,029) | -14.7% | 113 |
| 340 | Winston Salem/Forsyth County Schools | 53,947 | 52,205 | 1,742 | 3.3% | 19 |
| 350 | Franklin County Schools | 8,405 | 8,526 | (121) | -1.4% | 51 |
| 360 | Gaston County Schools | 31,285 | 30,704 | 581 | 1.9% | 30 |
| 370 | Gates County Schools | 1,612 | 1,778 | (166) | -9.3% | 108 |
| 380 | Graham County Schools | 1,152 | 1,176 | (24) | -2.0% | 59 |
| 390 | Granville County Schools | 7,868 | 8,505 | (637) | -7.5% | 101 |
| 400 | Greene County Schools | 3,141 | 3,174 | (33) | -1.0% | 45 |
| 410 | Guilford County Schools | 71,429 | 71,587 | (158) | -0.2% | 40 |
| 420 | Halifax County Schools | 2,732 | 3,604 | (872) | -24.2% | 115 |
| 421 | Roanoke Rapids City Schools | 2,864 | 2,983 | (119) | -4.0% | 79 |
| 422 | Weldon City Schools | 883 | 1,003 | (120) | -12.0% | 110 |
| 430 | Harnett County Schools | 20,252 | 19,378 | 874 | 4.5% | 14 |
| 440 | Haywood County Schools | 7,134 | 7,530 | (396) | -5.3% | 90 |
| 450 | Henderson County Schools | 13,506 | 13,197 | 309 | 2.3% | 28 |
| 460 | Hertford County Schools | 2,884 | 3,030 | (146) | -4.8% | 87 |
| 470 | Hoke County Schools | 8,300 | 7,962 | 338 | 4.2% | 15 |
| 480 | Hyde County Schools | 584 | 570 | 14 | 2.5% | 25 |
| 490 | Iredell-Statesville Schools | 20,643 | 21,239 | (596) | -2.8% | 68 |
| 491 | Mooresville Graded School District | 6,020 | 5,546 | 474 | 8.5% | 2 |
| 500 | Jackson County Schools | 3,685 | 3,538 | 147 | 4.2% | 16 |
| 510 | Johnston County Schools | 34,452 | 32,514 | 1,938 | 6.0% | 10 |
| 520 | Jones County Schools | 1,077 | 1,099 | (22) | -2.0% | 58 |
| 530 | Lee County Schools | 9,981 | 9,650 | 331 | 3.4% | 17 |
| 540 | Lenoir County Public Schools | 8,846 | 9,006 | (160) | -1.8% | 54 |
| 550 | Lincoln County Schools | 11,410 | 11,726 | (316) | -2.7% | 66 |
| 560 | Macon County Schools | 4,341 | 4,305 | 36 | 0.8% | 33 |
| 570 | Madison County Schools | 2,374 | 2,524 | (150) | -5.9% | 94 |
| 580 | Martin County Schools | 3,218 | 3,689 | (471) | -12.8% | 111 |
| 590 | McDowell County Schools | 6,183 | 6,377 | (194) | -3.0% | 71 |
| 600 | Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools | 145,444 | 137,016 | 8,428 | 6.2% | 8 |
| 610 | Mitchell County Schools | 1,868 | 2,037 | (169) | -8.3% | 105 |
| 620 | Montgomery County Schools | 3,950 | 4,137 | (187) | -4.5% | 83 |
| 630 | Moore County Schools | 12,769 | 12,371 | 398 | 3.2% | 20 |
| 640 | Nash-Rocky Mount Schools | 15,415 | 16,330 | (915) | -5.6% | 92 |
| 650 | New Hanover County Schools | 25,901 | 24,464 | 1,437 | 5.9% | 11 |
| 660 | Northampton County Schools | 1,842 | 2,206 | (364) | -16.5% | 114 |
| 670 | Onslow County Schools | 25,702 | 24,161 | 1,541 | 6.4% | 6 |
| 680 | Orange County Schools | 7,501 | 7,299 | 202 | 2.8% | 23 |
| 681 | Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools | 11,965 | 11,905 | 60 | 0.5% | 35 |
| 690 | Pamlico County Schools | 1,278 | 1,367 | (89) | -6.5% | 97 |
| 700 | Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools | 5,739 | 5,792 | (53) | -0.9% | 43 |
| 710 | Pender County Schools | 8,923 | 8,261 | 662 | 8.0% | 3 |
| 720 | Perquimans County Schools | 1,684 | 1,708 | (24) | -1.4% | 50 |
| 730 | Person County Schools | 4,570 | 4,776 | (206) | -4.3% | 82 |
| 740 | Pitt County Schools | 23,239 | 23,068 | 171 | 0.7% | 34 |
| 750 | Polk County Schools | 2,169 | 2,291 | (122) | -5.3% | 91 |
| 760 | Randolph County Schools | 17,460 | 18,309 | (849) | -4.6% | 84 |
| 761 | Asheboro City Schools | 4,648 | 4,683 | (35) | -0.7% | 41 |
| 770 | Richmond County Schools | 7,343 | 7,555 | (212) | -2.8% | 67 |
| 780 | Public Schools of Robeson County | 23,240 | 23,476 | (236) | -1.0% | 44 |
| 790 | Rockingham County Schools | 12,591 | 13,388 | (797) | -6.0% | 95 |
| 800 | Rowan-Salisbury Schools | 19,525 | 19,916 | (391) | -2.0% | 57 |
| 810 | Rutherford County Schools | 8,169 | 8,672 | (503) | -5.8% | 93 |
| 820 | Sampson County Schools | 8,371 | 8,436 | (65) | -0.8% | 42 |
| 821 | Clinton City Schools | 3,047 | 2,956 | 91 | 3.1% | 21 |
| 830 | Scotland County Schools | 5,818 | 6,046 | (228) | -3.8% | 76 |
| 840 | Stanly County Schools | 8,514 | 8,836 | (322) | -3.6% | 74 |
| 850 | Stokes County Schools | 6,135 | 6,791 | (656) | -9.7% | 109 |
| 860 | Surry County Schools | 8,118 | 8,320 | (202) | -2.4% | 63 |
| 861 | Elkin City Schools | 1,193 | 1,182 | 11 | 0.9% | 32 |
| 862 | Mount Airy City Schools | 1,594 | 1,631 | (37) | -2.3% | 61 |
| 870 | Swain County Schools | 1,896 | 1,917 | (21) | -1.1% | 47 |
| 880 | Transylvania County Schools | 3,440 | 3,504 | (64) | -1.8% | 56 |
| 890 | Tyrrell County Schools | 577 | 568 | 9 | 1.6% | 31 |
| 900 | Union County Public Schools | 41,873 | 39,654 | 2,219 | 5.6% | 13 |
| 910 | Vance County Schools | 6,296 | 6,757 | (461) | -6.8% | 99 |
| 920 | Wake County Schools | 156,612 | 145,922 | 10,690 | 7.3% | 5 |
| 930 | Warren County Schools | 2,238 | 2,386 | (148) | -6.2% | 96 |
| 940 | Washington County Schools | 1,528 | 1,681 | (153) | -9.1% | 107 |
| 950 | Watauga County Schools | 4,297 | 4,392 | (95) | -2.2% | 60 |
| 960 | Wayne County Public Schools | 18,505 | 19,144 | (639) | -3.3% | 72 |
| 970 | Wilkes County Schools | 9,568 | 9,812 | (244) | -2.5% | 65 |
| 980 | Wilson County Schools | 12,072 | 12,086 | (14) | -0.1% | 37 |
| 990 | Yadkin County Schools | 5,325 | 5,699 | (374) | -6.6% | 98 |
| 995 | Yancey County Schools | 2,198 | 2,318 | (120) | -5.2% | 89 |
These enrollment trends are critical.
Districts with growing student populations often encounter multiple challenges. They must build new schools, expand transportation services, hire additional personnel, and procure instructional materials and technology to cover legally mandated services for incoming students. While growing districts receive federal and state funds that offset a portion of these costs, county commissions may struggle to accommodate demands by school boards for a larger share of local tax revenue. Displeased and disenfranchised taxpayers may also spurn efforts by elected officials to borrow millions of dollars for school facility projects, raise taxes, or reduce spending on other locally funded services.
On the other hand, shrinking districts may lose state and federal funding tied to enrollment, as well as local dollars tied to residents. While these districts also have fewer students to educate, the loss of revenue makes it increasingly difficult for district officials to attend to fixed costs, such as school buildings and school buses. In addition, these districts may struggle to support supplementary instruction, enrichment programs, and extracurricular activities.
Policy responses to enrollment changes vary. Clearly, there is no silver bullet. One option is to modify the funding formula to ensure that districts with consistent and sizable enrollment decreases receive sufficient dollars for fixed costs. But such a policy would be a disservice to growing districts. After all, they could also make a strong case that they should also receive a targeted allotment to address facilities or infrastructure needs.
Elected officials may also mandate that districts consolidate schools or merge with a city system or a neighboring county district. Those options appear to be fiscally and educationally sensible for some districts. According to state law, those decisions are within the purview of local governments. Incentivizing districts to consolidate schools or merge with others would be the only viable option for state lawmakers. Even that is unlikely to work – consolidations and mergers are widely unpopular.
