NC pension plan outperforms expectations in first half of 2025
The state’s pension plan generated $8 billion in investment returns in the first half of 2025, state Treasurer Brad Briner announced at a Council of State meeting in early July.
Those gains are approximately $3.5 billion above the state Treasury’s original estimate, according to a July 9 press release.
“That’s more than the stock market by itself would deliver and double what we need to make to keep our pension system solvent,” Briner said about the $8 billion returns in a video announcement.
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The North Carolina Retirement Systems (NCRS) generated an estimated 6.11% return through June 30, according to the press release. That gain — roughly $7.7 billion — comes after accounting for $388 million in net benefit payments during the same period.
At the end of 2024, the total value of NCRS investments stood at $126.5 billion. By mid-2025, that amount grew to an estimated $133.8 billion.
“A portion of the estimated investment earnings resulted from repositioning the portfolio over the period (approximately $276 million),” the press release said.
The results significantly exceeded the plan’s targets. The required rate of return for the year is 6.5% — or 3.25% over six months. However, thanks to the 6.11% return rate, the plan actually earned roughly $3.6 billion more than expected, providing a notable boost to the system’s long-term funding outlook.
The gains will help “to significantly cut down” the plan’s inherited $16 billion deficit, per the press release, due in part because of the plan’s repeated failure to deliver its 6.5% required rate of return. A 2023 study by Yale University found that it delivered an average return of just 4.9% over the previous three years — placing it last among the 50 state retirement systems. By comparison, the national average during that period was 7.84%.
