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Freshman enrollment this fall is actually up, National Student Clearinghouse finds

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Students on the campus of Cape Fear Community College. Courtesy of CFCC

Enrollment among first-year college students across the United States did not decline this fall, as previously reported by the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center in its annual preliminary enrollment report released in October.

On Monday, Jan. 13, the NSC said that a methodological error led to a miscalculation of freshman enrollment in the preliminary enrollment report.

Per the NSC, the preliminary report is based on data provided by about 50% of higher education institutions. This year’s methodological errors led to mislabeling some students as dual-enrolled instead of as freshmen — leading to the undercounting of first-year students and over counting of dually enrolled students.

“Our subsequent research finds freshman enrollment increased this fall,” NSC Executive Director Doug Shapiro said in a statement. “The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community. We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”

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An updated report on enrollment will be released on Jan. 23, the NSC said. That report is not based on preliminary data, the press release said, and includes data from “nearly all institutions of higher education, and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees.”

The NSC’s October report showed first-year enrollments fell by 5%, which would have been the largest decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The preliminary report also showed that undergraduate enrollment rose this fall for the second year in a row — up 3% from the previous year. However, data about first-year enrollment seemed to confirm fears that the rocky launch of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) last year led to decreased college access.

James Kvaal, the top higher education official at the U.S. Department of Education (DOE), said that an increase in first-year enrollment is consistent with the agency’s internal metrics, according to a report from Higher Ed Dive. According to Kvaal, DOE data show increases in the number of students receiving federal aid this year.

“We are encouraged and relieved that updated data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows freshman enrollment is up this school year,” Kvaal said.

The error only impacted first-year and dual-enrolled student counts, according to the NSC. It did not affect the total number of undergraduate students. However, the error did impact the center’s special analysis of 18-year-old freshmen report, which was released in November.

Since 2020, the NSC has created the preliminary enrollment reports to “provide early and real-time enrollment information to meet the acute information needs of the higher education community at the height of the COVID pandemic,” according to the center’s press release.

The center said it will pause publication of its preliminary reports “until the revised methodology has been thoroughly vetted,” according to Higher Ed Dive.

The center typically publishes a final and complete report on enrollment every January.